Ukraine overcame the winter without large-scale power outages: predictions did not come true

Before the start of the 2024-2025 winter season, many experts and the media predicted serious problems in the energy sector of Ukraine. There were predictions about possible power outages of up to 20 hours a day. However, these pessimistic scenarios did not come true - the country survived the winter without significant interruptions in the supply of electricity.

According to the publication "Apostrophe", the Ukrainian power system was able to withstand massive strikes from Russia. The decisive role in the stability of the power supply was played by the prompt repairs of damaged facilities, the import of electricity and the strengthening of air defense. These factors helped to avoid long-term power outages.

According to the Ministry of Energy, from December 2024 to February 2025, four large-scale missile strikes on the energy infrastructure were recorded. However, none of them led to long-term blackouts, and Ukraine’s power system was able to quickly restore its operation.

Despite this, some Ukrainian analysts and international organizations predicted significant problems before the winter. For example, the director of the Energy Research Center, Oleksandr Kharchenko, stated in the summer of 2024 that during severe frosts, power outages could last from 12 to 16 hours a day. In turn, the UN Monitoring Mission warned in the fall of possible outages of up to 18 hours a day.

Western media, including CNN, The Washington Post, The Guardian, and The New York Times, also actively disseminated forecasts of large-scale power outages. Politico quoted experts who stated that strikes on nuclear plants could leave Ukrainians without electricity for 20 hours a day.

However, the Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly denied these statements. Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko emphasized in the fall of 2024 that the country was well prepared for the winter period. He assured that gas reserves in storage facilities were sufficient, and also noted the growth of import opportunities thanks to cooperation with ENTSO-E, which allowed to increase electricity imports from the EU to 1,700 MW.

Although the worst forecasts did not come true, experts note that the information panic had negative consequences. Due to fears of large-scale outages, Ukrainians began to massively buy generators and charging stations, which caused their cost to increase by 60%. Also, the fear of blackouts forced some citizens to temporarily go abroad, which affected the economic situation and the labor market in Ukraine.

In the end, despite all the pessimistic forecasts, the 2024-2025 heating season passed without critical problems. The Ukrainian power system continues to operate stably, and the country once again proved its ability to withstand challenges.